diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example
index e849024..99403ab 100644
--- a/.env.example
+++ b/.env.example
@@ -171,6 +171,10 @@ H5_PUBLIC_BASE_URL=http://127.0.0.1:5173
 # MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_ENABLED=1
 # MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_CANARY_USER_IDS=a6fb1e97-2b0f-447b-b138-4561d8e5c53e
 # MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_MIN_TEXT_LENGTH=12
+# 阶段 D：h5direct 上一轮直聊后的短句纠偏（「不对，你去执行」）
+# MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED=1
+# MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS=a6fb1e97-2b0f-447b-b138-4561d8e5c53e
+# 阶段 A 只读基线：npm run check:chat-intent-baseline
 
 # ----- Token 压缩（本地开发可选，降低 DeepSeek 上下文）-----
 # Agent 会话历史压缩：超过阈值后清空 Goose 会话并保留摘要（默认 180 条 / 12 万字符，偏松）
diff --git a/agent-run-gateway.mjs b/agent-run-gateway.mjs
index 36e6441..b7f18fe 100644
--- a/agent-run-gateway.mjs
+++ b/agent-run-gateway.mjs
@@ -688,6 +688,43 @@ function parseIntentRoutedEvent(dataJson) {
   };
 }
 
+export async function resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint(pool, {
+  userId,
+  sessionId,
+  excludeRunId = null,
+} = {}) {
+  if (!pool || !userId || !String(sessionId ?? '').trim()) {
+    return { lastDirectChatCompleted: false };
+  }
+  const params = [userId, sessionId];
+  let excludeClause = '';
+  if (excludeRunId) {
+    excludeClause = ' AND r.id <> ?';
+    params.push(excludeRunId);
+  }
+  const [rows] = await pool.query(
+    `SELECT (
+              SELECT e.event_type
+              FROM h5_agent_run_events e
+              WHERE e.run_id = r.id
+                AND e.event_type IN (
+                  'direct_chat_completed',
+                  'direct_session_escalated_to_deep_reasoning'
+                )
+              ORDER BY e.created_at DESC
+              LIMIT 1
+            ) AS last_event
+     FROM h5_agent_runs r
+     WHERE r.user_id = ? AND r.agent_session_id = ?${excludeClause}
+     ORDER BY r.created_at DESC
+     LIMIT 1`,
+    params,
+  );
+  return {
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: rows?.[0]?.last_event === 'direct_chat_completed',
+  };
+}
+
 export async function resolveActiveTaskContext(pool, {
   userId,
   sessionId,
@@ -1766,6 +1803,11 @@ export function createAgentRunGateway({
       userId: row.user_id,
       excludeLatestUserText: displayText,
     }).catch(() => '');
+    const followUpHint = await resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint(pool, {
+      userId: row.user_id,
+      sessionId: row.agent_session_id ?? null,
+      excludeRunId: runId,
+    }).catch(() => ({ lastDirectChatCompleted: false }));
     return chatIntentRouter.classify({
       userId: row.user_id,
       userMessage,
@@ -1776,6 +1818,7 @@ export function createAgentRunGateway({
       grantedSkills,
       activeTaskContext,
       recentTranscript,
+      lastDirectChatCompleted: followUpHint.lastDirectChatCompleted === true,
     });
   }
 
diff --git a/agent-run-gateway.test.mjs b/agent-run-gateway.test.mjs
index ddc424d..0e139cc 100644
--- a/agent-run-gateway.test.mjs
+++ b/agent-run-gateway.test.mjs
@@ -10,11 +10,53 @@ import {
   createAgentRunGateway,
   normalizeAgentRunWorkerIdentity,
   resolveActiveTaskContext,
+  resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint,
   resolveRouterTranscript,
   resolveRequiredCodeExecutor,
   shouldPreferDirectChat,
 } from './agent-run-gateway.mjs';
 
+test('resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint is true after a direct chat turn on h5direct', async () => {
+  const pool = {
+    async query() {
+      return [[{ last_event: 'direct_chat_completed' }]];
+    },
+  };
+  const hint = await resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint(pool, {
+    userId: 'user-1',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    excludeRunId: 'run-current',
+  });
+  assert.equal(hint.lastDirectChatCompleted, true);
+});
+
+test('resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint reads last direct turn on date sessions', async () => {
+  const pool = {
+    async query() {
+      return [[{ last_event: 'direct_chat_completed' }]];
+    },
+  };
+  const hint = await resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint(pool, {
+    userId: 'user-1',
+    sessionId: '20260919_7',
+    excludeRunId: 'run-current',
+  });
+  assert.equal(hint.lastDirectChatCompleted, true);
+});
+
+test('resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint stays false without session', async () => {
+  const pool = {
+    async query() {
+      throw new Error('should not query without session');
+    },
+  };
+  const hint = await resolveDirectSessionFollowUpHint(pool, {
+    userId: 'user-1',
+    sessionId: '',
+  });
+  assert.equal(hint.lastDirectChatCompleted, false);
+});
+
 test('resolveActiveTaskContext returns failed agent task metadata for same session', async () => {
   const now = Date.now();
   const pool = {
diff --git a/chat-intent-observation.mjs b/chat-intent-observation.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..eeb6695
--- /dev/null
+++ b/chat-intent-observation.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+export const RULE_FALLBACK_CONFIDENCE = 0.72;
+export const RULE_FALLBACK_REASON = '普通对话默认走轻量聊天';
+
+function asFiniteNumber(value) {
+  const parsed = Number(value);
+  return Number.isFinite(parsed) ? parsed : null;
+}
+
+function bucketTextLength(length) {
+  if (!length) return 'empty';
+  if (length <= 6) return 'short_le6';
+  if (length <= 12) return 'medium_le12';
+  return 'long_gt12';
+}
+
+export function isRuleFallbackClassification(classification = {}) {
+  if (classification?.ruleFallback === true) return true;
+  const source = String(classification?.source ?? '').trim();
+  const reason = String(classification?.reason ?? '').trim();
+  const confidence = asFiniteNumber(classification?.confidence);
+  return source === 'rule'
+    && confidence != null
+    && Math.abs(confidence - RULE_FALLBACK_CONFIDENCE) < 1e-9
+    && reason.includes(RULE_FALLBACK_REASON);
+}
+
+export function summarizeChatIntentObservation(classification = {}, context = {}) {
+  const text = String(context.text ?? '').trim();
+  const textLength = text.length;
+  const confidence = asFiniteNumber(classification.confidence);
+  return {
+    route: classification.route ?? null,
+    source: String(classification.source ?? '').trim() || null,
+    confidence,
+    ruleFallback: isRuleFallbackClassification(classification),
+    memoryRecall: context.memoryRecall === true,
+    wouldChangeRoute: Boolean(classification.llmShadow?.wouldChangeRoute),
+    llmShadowRoute: classification.llmShadow?.route ?? null,
+    textLength,
+    textLengthBucket: bucketTextLength(textLength),
+  };
+}
+
+export function observationFromIntentRoutedData(data = {}, fallbackText = '') {
+  if (data?.observation && typeof data.observation === 'object') {
+    return data.observation;
+  }
+  return summarizeChatIntentObservation(data, { text: fallbackText });
+}
+
+function increment(map, key) {
+  const normalized = key == null ? '(null)' : String(key);
+  map[normalized] = (map[normalized] || 0) + 1;
+}
+
+export function aggregateChatIntentObservations({
+  routed = [],
+  escalatedCount = 0,
+  contextInjectedCount = 0,
+} = {}) {
+  const total = routed.length;
+  const sourceCounts = {};
+  const routeCounts = {};
+  const bucketCounts = {};
+  let ruleFallbackCount = 0;
+  let memoryRecallCount = 0;
+  let memoryRecallNotDirect = 0;
+  let shadowObserved = 0;
+  let wouldChangeRoute = 0;
+
+  for (const item of routed) {
+    increment(sourceCounts, item.source);
+    increment(routeCounts, item.route);
+    increment(bucketCounts, item.textLengthBucket);
+    if (item.ruleFallback) ruleFallbackCount += 1;
+    if (item.memoryRecall) {
+      memoryRecallCount += 1;
+      if (item.route && item.route !== 'direct_chat') memoryRecallNotDirect += 1;
+    }
+    if (item.llmShadowRoute != null || item.wouldChangeRoute) {
+      shadowObserved += 1;
+    }
+    if (item.wouldChangeRoute) wouldChangeRoute += 1;
+  }
+
+  const ratio = (count) => (total > 0 ? Number((count / total).toFixed(4)) : 0);
+  return {
+    total,
+    ruleFallbackCount,
+    ruleFallbackRatio: ratio(ruleFallbackCount),
+    escalatedCount,
+    escalationRatio: ratio(escalatedCount),
+    contextInjectedCount,
+    sourceCounts,
+    routeCounts,
+    shortMessageCounts: bucketCounts,
+    memoryRecallCount,
+    memoryRecallDirectRatio: memoryRecallCount > 0
+      ? Number(((memoryRecallCount - memoryRecallNotDirect) / memoryRecallCount).toFixed(4))
+      : 1,
+    shadowObserved,
+    wouldChangeRoute,
+    wouldChangeRouteRatio: shadowObserved > 0
+      ? Number((wouldChangeRoute / shadowObserved).toFixed(4))
+      : 0,
+  };
+}
diff --git a/chat-intent-observation.test.mjs b/chat-intent-observation.test.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0788341
--- /dev/null
+++ b/chat-intent-observation.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import test from 'node:test';
+import {
+  aggregateChatIntentObservations,
+  isRuleFallbackClassification,
+  observationFromIntentRoutedData,
+  RULE_FALLBACK_CONFIDENCE,
+  RULE_FALLBACK_REASON,
+  summarizeChatIntentObservation,
+} from './chat-intent-observation.mjs';
+import { CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE, classifyWithRules } from './chat-intent-router.mjs';
+
+test('isRuleFallbackClassification accepts explicit flag or legacy 0.72 reason', () => {
+  assert.equal(isRuleFallbackClassification({ ruleFallback: true }), true);
+  assert.equal(isRuleFallbackClassification({
+    source: 'rule',
+    confidence: RULE_FALLBACK_CONFIDENCE,
+    reason: RULE_FALLBACK_REASON,
+  }), true);
+  assert.equal(isRuleFallbackClassification({
+    source: 'llm',
+    confidence: RULE_FALLBACK_CONFIDENCE,
+    reason: RULE_FALLBACK_REASON,
+  }), false);
+});
+
+test('summarizeChatIntentObservation tags short text and shadow flips', () => {
+  const observation = summarizeChatIntentObservation({
+    route: CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT,
+    source: 'rule',
+    confidence: 0.72,
+    reason: RULE_FALLBACK_REASON,
+    ruleFallback: true,
+    llmShadow: { route: CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT, wouldChangeRoute: true },
+  }, {
+    text: '帮我做',
+    memoryRecall: false,
+  });
+  assert.equal(observation.ruleFallback, true);
+  assert.equal(observation.textLengthBucket, 'short_le6');
+  assert.equal(observation.wouldChangeRoute, true);
+  assert.equal(observation.llmShadowRoute, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT);
+});
+
+test('observationFromIntentRoutedData prefers stored observation', () => {
+  const stored = { route: 'direct_chat', ruleFallback: true, textLengthBucket: 'long_gt12' };
+  assert.deepEqual(observationFromIntentRoutedData({
+    route: 'agent_orchestration',
+    observation: stored,
+  }), stored);
+  const inferred = observationFromIntentRoutedData({
+    route: 'direct_chat',
+    source: 'rule',
+    confidence: 0.72,
+    reason: RULE_FALLBACK_REASON,
+  });
+  assert.equal(inferred.ruleFallback, true);
+});
+
+test('aggregateChatIntentObservations computes stage A ratios', () => {
+  const summary = aggregateChatIntentObservations({
+    routed: [
+      {
+        route: 'direct_chat',
+        source: 'rule',
+        ruleFallback: true,
+        textLengthBucket: 'long_gt12',
+        memoryRecall: false,
+        wouldChangeRoute: true,
+        llmShadowRoute: 'agent_orchestration',
+      },
+      {
+        route: 'direct_chat',
+        source: 'rule',
+        ruleFallback: false,
+        textLengthBucket: 'short_le6',
+        memoryRecall: true,
+        wouldChangeRoute: false,
+        llmShadowRoute: null,
+      },
+      {
+        route: 'agent_orchestration',
+        source: 'llm',
+        ruleFallback: false,
+        textLengthBucket: 'long_gt12',
+        memoryRecall: false,
+        wouldChangeRoute: false,
+        llmShadowRoute: null,
+      },
+    ],
+    escalatedCount: 1,
+    contextInjectedCount: 1,
+  });
+  assert.equal(summary.total, 3);
+  assert.equal(summary.ruleFallbackRatio, 0.3333);
+  assert.equal(summary.escalatedCount, 1);
+  assert.equal(summary.memoryRecallDirectRatio, 1);
+  assert.equal(summary.wouldChangeRouteRatio, 1);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules attaches stage A observation on 0.72 fallback', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '帮我比较一下英得尔和美的车载冰箱',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 3,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
+  assert.equal(result.source, 'rule');
+  assert.equal(result.ruleFallback, true);
+  assert.equal(result.observation.ruleFallback, true);
+  assert.equal(result.observation.textLengthBucket, 'long_gt12');
+  assert.equal(result.observation.memoryRecall, false);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules marks memory recall without treating it as 0.72 fallback', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '你记得我说想去哪儿吗',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 3,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
+  assert.equal(result.observation.memoryRecall, true);
+  assert.equal(result.observation.ruleFallback, false);
+});
diff --git a/chat-intent-router.mjs b/chat-intent-router.mjs
index 4e38bbc..5e0a079 100644
--- a/chat-intent-router.mjs
+++ b/chat-intent-router.mjs
@@ -30,14 +30,19 @@ import { resolveMemindRuntimeProfile } from './scripts/memind-runtime-profile.mj
 import { pgvectorMemoryBackendInternals } from './memory-v2-pgvector.mjs';
 import {
   isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser,
+  isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser,
   resolveChatSessionDeferPolicy,
+  resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy,
   shouldDeferChatSessionRoutingToLlm,
 } from './chat-task-intent-config.mjs';
+import { summarizeChatIntentObservation } from './chat-intent-observation.mjs';
 
 export { shouldDeferChatSessionRoutingToLlm } from './chat-task-intent-config.mjs';
 export {
   resolveChatSessionDeferPolicy,
   isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser,
+  resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy,
+  isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser,
 } from './chat-task-intent-config.mjs';
 export { matchDirectChatFaqRule, DIRECT_CHAT_FAQ_RULES, FAQ_EXCLUSION_PATTERNS, isExplicitTextOnlyRequest } from './chat-intent-router-rules.mjs';
 
@@ -126,6 +131,17 @@ const OBVIOUS_DIRECT_CHAT_PATTERNS = [
   /(?:继续|再).{0,8}(?:写|讲|说|编).{0,10}(?:诗|故事|笑话|散文)/u,
 ];
 
+/** User hedges that they only want to discuss first — keep C-2 from treating selection talk as execute. */
+const DISCUSSION_FIRST_PATTERNS = [
+  /(?:想)?先(?:来)?(?:聊聊|聊一聊|聊下|讨论|了解|问问|请教)/u,
+  /先(?:不要|别|不用)(?:去)?(?:执行|做|生成|搜索|查)/u,
+  /先不(?:要|用)?(?:去)?(?:执行|做)/u,
+  /(?:只要|先要)(?:文字)?(?:建议|交流|讨论)/u,
+  /先不(?:要|用)(?:工具|联网|搜索|执行)/u,
+];
+
+const DISCUSSION_FIRST_EXECUTE_OVERRIDE = /(?:你去执行|现在就(?:做|执行|查|搜|生成)|马上(?:做|执行|查)|立刻(?:做|执行)|帮我(?:生成|做|制作|发布).{0,16}(?:页面|网页|文件|链接)|做成(?:页面|网页))/u;
+
 export const IMAGE_GENERATION_MODE = {
   AUTO: 'auto',
   REQUIRED: 'required',
@@ -351,6 +367,35 @@ export function isAgentTaskFollowUpText(text) {
   return AGENT_TASK_FOLLOWUP_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(normalized));
 }
 
+export function isDiscussionFirstText(text) {
+  const normalized = String(text ?? '').trim();
+  if (!normalized) return false;
+  if (!DISCUSSION_FIRST_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(normalized))) return false;
+  if (DISCUSSION_FIRST_EXECUTE_OVERRIDE.test(normalized)) return false;
+  if (OBVIOUS_AGENT_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(normalized))) return false;
+  if (
+    isPageGenerationIntent(normalized)
+    || isPageDataIntent(normalized)
+    || isPageDataDevIntent(normalized)
+  ) {
+    return false;
+  }
+  return true;
+}
+
+export function shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+  enabled = false,
+  text = '',
+  sessionId = null,
+  lastDirectChatCompleted = false,
+} = {}) {
+  if (!enabled || lastDirectChatCompleted !== true) return false;
+  if (!String(sessionId ?? '').trim()) return false;
+  const normalized = String(text ?? '').trim();
+  if (!normalized || isExplicitDirectChatOnlyText(normalized)) return false;
+  return isAgentTaskFollowUpText(normalized);
+}
+
 function isExplicitDirectChatOnlyText(text) {
   const normalized = String(text ?? '').trim();
   if (!normalized) return false;
@@ -358,6 +403,7 @@ function isExplicitDirectChatOnlyText(text) {
   if (isExplicitTextOnlyRequest(normalized)) return true;
   if (OBVIOUS_DIRECT_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(normalized))) return true;
   if (OBVIOUS_DIRECT_CHAT_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(normalized))) return true;
+  if (isDiscussionFirstText(normalized)) return true;
   const faqMatch = matchDirectChatFaqRule(normalized);
   return Boolean(faqMatch);
 }
@@ -651,11 +697,12 @@ function buildRouterSystemPrompt(grantedSkills = []) {
     '',
     '判断原则：',
     '- 用户只要文字回答，不要求“做出来/发布/生成链接/改文件” → direct_chat',
+    '- 用户明确说「想先聊聊/先讨论/先了解/先不要执行」，只要建议或讨论 → direct_chat，即使话题是选型、对比或清单',
     '- 用户要产出可访问页面、文件、链接，或需要工具/skills → agent_orchestration',
-    '- 用户要求对比选型、整理清单/待办/用药/作业、规划行程交通住宿，或把结果发给家人同事（即使没说“页面”）→ agent_orchestration，不要只当口头建议',
+    '- 用户要求对比选型、整理清单/待办/用药/作业、规划行程交通住宿，或把结果发给家人同事（即使没说“页面”）→ agent_orchestration，不要只当口头建议；但用户同时说先聊/先讨论/先不要执行时仍走 direct_chat',
     '- 用户要「做攻略/行程/线路图/游记」或粘贴多日自驾/旅行行程（即使未说「页面」）→ agent_orchestration + static-page-publish，不要只回文字',
     '- 用户询问实时赛况、新闻、天气、行情等需要联网查询的问题 → agent_orchestration，suggested_skill 填 web（不要填 search）',
-    '- 不确定时优先 agent_orchestration，避免漏执行',
+    '- 不确定时优先 agent_orchestration，避免漏执行；用户已表明只要先聊时除外',
     '- 若 [Active Task] 显示上一轮 Agent 任务失败或进行中，用户当前消息是在纠正、补充、追问进度或要求按前文继续 → agent_orchestration，不要判成 direct_chat',
     '- [Recent Conversation] 是对话摘要，当前消息可能引用上文（如「不对」「按我说的」「还是没有改」）；结合上下文判断，不要孤立看当前一句',
     '- 记忆线索只用于辅助判断本轮意图，不能替用户扩写新需求',
@@ -934,6 +981,10 @@ export function finalizeRouterClassification(classification, context = {}) {
   return {
     ...classification,
     decision: buildRouterNormalizedDecision(classification, context),
+    observation: summarizeChatIntentObservation(classification, {
+      text: context.text,
+      memoryRecall: isMemoryRecallQuestion(context.text),
+    }),
   };
 }
 
@@ -1116,6 +1167,7 @@ function normalizeClassification(raw, { source, fallbackRoute = CHAT_INTENT_ROUT
     suggestedSkill,
     agentBrief,
     source,
+    ruleFallback: raw?.ruleFallback === true,
     providerKeyId: raw?.providerKeyId ?? raw?.provider_key_id ?? null,
     model: raw?.model ?? null,
     memory: raw?.memory ?? null,
@@ -1275,6 +1327,8 @@ export function classifyWithRules({
   grantedSkills = [],
   chatSessionDeferEnabled = false,
   chatSessionDeferMinTextLength = 12,
+  directFollowupEscalateEnabled = false,
+  lastDirectChatCompleted = false,
 } = {}) {
   const decisionContext = {
     text,
@@ -1419,6 +1473,13 @@ export function classifyWithRules({
   if (includeIntentPatterns && normalized && isRealtimeInfoQuestion(normalized)) {
     return finalizeRouterClassification(buildRealtimeInfoClassification(), decisionContext);
   }
+  if (includeIntentPatterns && normalized && isDiscussionFirstText(normalized)) {
+    return finalizeRouterClassification(normalizeClassification({
+      route: CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT,
+      confidence: 0.92,
+      reason: '用户明确要求先讨论，不执行任务',
+    }, { source: 'rule' }), decisionContext);
+  }
   if (includeIntentPatterns && normalized) {
     if (
       shouldDeferActiveTaskRoutingToLlm({
@@ -1430,6 +1491,18 @@ export function classifyWithRules({
     ) {
       return null;
     }
+    if (shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+      enabled: directFollowupEscalateEnabled,
+      text: normalized,
+      sessionId,
+      lastDirectChatCompleted,
+    })) {
+      return finalizeRouterClassification(normalizeClassification({
+        route: CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT,
+        confidence: 0.9,
+        reason: '聊天会话短句纠偏，继续执行任务',
+      }, { source: 'rule' }), decisionContext);
+    }
     if (shouldDeferChatSessionRoutingToLlm({
       enabled: chatSessionDeferEnabled,
       text: normalized,
@@ -1442,6 +1515,7 @@ export function classifyWithRules({
       route: CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT,
       confidence: 0.72,
       reason: '普通对话默认走轻量聊天',
+      ruleFallback: true,
     }, { source: 'rule' }), decisionContext);
   }
   return null;
@@ -1475,6 +1549,8 @@ export function createChatIntentRouter(options = {}) {
   });
   const chatSessionDeferPolicy = options.chatSessionDeferPolicy
     ?? resolveChatSessionDeferPolicy(env);
+  const directFollowupEscalatePolicy = options.directFollowupEscalatePolicy
+    ?? resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy(env);
 
   function isLlmRouterEligibleForUser(userId) {
     return isChatLlmRouterEligible({
@@ -1773,6 +1849,7 @@ export function createChatIntentRouter(options = {}) {
     grantedSkills = [],
     activeTaskContext = null,
     recentTranscript = '',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted = false,
   } = {}) {
     const text = messageDisplayText(userMessage);
     const decisionContext = {
@@ -1805,6 +1882,10 @@ export function createChatIntentRouter(options = {}) {
     };
     const llmRouterEligible = isLlmRouterEligibleForUser(userId);
     const chatSessionDeferEnabled = isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser(userId, chatSessionDeferPolicy);
+    const directFollowupEscalateEnabled = isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser(
+      userId,
+      directFollowupEscalatePolicy,
+    );
     const ruleResult = classifyWithRules({
       text,
       forceDeepReasoning,
@@ -1817,6 +1898,8 @@ export function createChatIntentRouter(options = {}) {
       grantedSkills,
       chatSessionDeferEnabled,
       chatSessionDeferMinTextLength: chatSessionDeferPolicy.minTextLength,
+      directFollowupEscalateEnabled,
+      lastDirectChatCompleted,
     });
     if (ruleResult) return finalizeWithCoercion(ruleResult);
 
@@ -1967,6 +2050,8 @@ const LOCAL_CHAT_ROUTER_ENV_KEYS = [
   'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_MIN_TEXT_LENGTH',
   'MEMIND_DIRECT_ESCALATION_CONTEXT_ENABLED',
   'MEMIND_DIRECT_ESCALATION_CONTEXT_CANARY_USER_IDS',
+  'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED',
+  'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS',
 ];
 
 export function mergeChatRouterEffectiveEnv(processEnv = {}, overrides = {}) {
diff --git a/chat-intent-router.test.mjs b/chat-intent-router.test.mjs
index 5d6fa5b..60710c4 100644
--- a/chat-intent-router.test.mjs
+++ b/chat-intent-router.test.mjs
@@ -11,9 +11,11 @@ import {
   coercePageGenerationSkill,
   createChatIntentRouter,
   createManagedChatIntentRouter,
+  isDiscussionFirstText,
   mergeChatRouterEffectiveEnv,
   formatRouterTranscript,
   shouldDeferActiveTaskRoutingToLlm,
+  shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp,
   shouldForceActiveAgentTaskContinuation,
   isNormalizedRouterDecisionEnabled,
   isNormalizedRouterDecisionShadow,
@@ -1101,6 +1103,73 @@ test('classifyWithRules routes memory recall to direct chat on fresh session', (
   assert.equal(lastConversation.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
 });
 
+test('shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp fires after direct chat on date or h5direct sessions', () => {
+  assert.equal(shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+    enabled: true,
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  }), true);
+  assert.equal(shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+    enabled: true,
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: '20260919_7',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  }), true);
+  assert.equal(shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+    enabled: false,
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  }), false);
+  assert.equal(shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+    enabled: true,
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: '20260919_7',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: false,
+  }), false);
+  assert.equal(shouldEscalateDirectSessionFollowUp({
+    enabled: true,
+    text: '你好',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  }), false);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules escalates short follow-up on h5direct after direct chat', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 4,
+    directFollowupEscalateEnabled: true,
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT);
+  assert.match(result.reason, /短句纠偏/);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules escalates short follow-up on date sessions after direct chat', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: '20260919_7',
+    sessionMessageCount: 4,
+    directFollowupEscalateEnabled: true,
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT);
+  assert.match(result.reason, /短句纠偏/);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules keeps short follow-up on 0.72 fallback when stage D is off', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '不对，你去执行',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 4,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
+  assert.equal(result.ruleFallback, true);
+});
+
 test('classifyWithRules defers ambiguous chat text to llm when chat session defer is enabled', () => {
   const result = classifyWithRules({
     text: '帮我比较一下英得尔和美的车载冰箱',
@@ -1112,6 +1181,41 @@ test('classifyWithRules defers ambiguous chat text to llm when chat session defe
   assert.equal(result, null);
 });
 
+test('isDiscussionFirstText keeps discuss-first shopping talk off the execute path', () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    isDiscussionFirstText('想先聊聊车载冰箱怎么选，MPV 用，宽度不超过 60cm'),
+    true,
+  );
+  assert.equal(isDiscussionFirstText('先了解一下英得尔和冰虎怎么选'), true);
+  assert.equal(isDiscussionFirstText('先不要执行，帮我说说选购要点'), true);
+  assert.equal(isDiscussionFirstText('帮我比较一下英得尔和美的车载冰箱'), false);
+  assert.equal(isDiscussionFirstText('想先聊聊然后帮我生成一个选购页面'), false);
+  assert.equal(isDiscussionFirstText('想先聊聊，你去执行'), false);
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules keeps discuss-first shopping talk on direct chat when defer is enabled', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '想先聊聊车载冰箱怎么选，MPV 用，宽度不超过 60cm',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 3,
+    chatSessionDeferEnabled: true,
+    chatSessionDeferMinTextLength: 12,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
+  assert.equal(result.source, 'rule');
+  assert.equal(result.reason, '用户明确要求先讨论，不执行任务');
+});
+
+test('classifyWithRules still routes discuss-first plus page request to agent', () => {
+  const result = classifyWithRules({
+    text: '想先聊聊然后帮我生成一个选购页面',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 3,
+    chatSessionDeferEnabled: true,
+  });
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT);
+});
+
 test('classifyWithRules keeps memory recall on direct chat when defer is enabled', () => {
   const result = classifyWithRules({
     text: '你记得我说想去哪儿吗',
@@ -1122,6 +1226,40 @@ test('classifyWithRules keeps memory recall on direct chat when defer is enabled
   assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
 });
 
+test('createChatIntentRouter escalates h5direct follow-up when stage D is enabled for the user', async () => {
+  let llmCalls = 0;
+  const router = createChatIntentRouter({
+    llmProviderService: {
+      async createChatCompletion() {
+        llmCalls += 1;
+        return { ok: false, message: 'unused' };
+      },
+    },
+    env: {
+      ...process.env,
+      MEMIND_CHAT_LLM_ROUTER_ENABLED: '1',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED: '1',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS: 'john',
+    },
+  });
+
+  const result = await router.classify({
+    userId: 'john',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 4,
+    lastDirectChatCompleted: true,
+    userMessage: {
+      role: 'user',
+      content: [{ type: 'text', text: '不对，你去执行' }],
+      metadata: { displayText: '不对，你去执行' },
+    },
+  });
+
+  assert.equal(llmCalls, 0);
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT);
+  assert.equal(result.source, 'rule');
+});
+
 test('createChatIntentRouter calls LLM for ambiguous chat-session text when defer is enabled', async () => {
   let llmCalls = 0;
   const router = createChatIntentRouter({
@@ -1206,6 +1344,49 @@ test('createChatIntentRouter keeps greetings on rules when chat-session defer is
   assert.equal(result.source, 'rule');
 });
 
+test('createChatIntentRouter keeps discuss-first shopping talk on rules when defer is enabled', async () => {
+  let llmCalls = 0;
+  const router = createChatIntentRouter({
+    llmProviderService: {
+      async createChatCompletion() {
+        llmCalls += 1;
+        return {
+          ok: true,
+          reply: JSON.stringify({
+            route: 'agent_orchestration',
+            confidence: 0.99,
+            reason: 'should not run',
+          }),
+        };
+      },
+    },
+    env: {
+      ...process.env,
+      MEMIND_CHAT_LLM_ROUTER_ENABLED: '1',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_LLM_ROUTER_SHADOW: '0',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CANARY_USER_IDS: 'john',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_ENABLED: '1',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_CANARY_USER_IDS: 'john',
+      MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_MIN_TEXT_LENGTH: '12',
+    },
+  });
+
+  const result = await router.classify({
+    userId: 'john',
+    sessionId: 'h5direct_abc',
+    sessionMessageCount: 3,
+    userMessage: {
+      role: 'user',
+      content: [{ type: 'text', text: '想先聊聊车载冰箱怎么选，MPV 用，宽度不超过 60cm' }],
+      metadata: { displayText: '想先聊聊车载冰箱怎么选，MPV 用，宽度不超过 60cm' },
+    },
+  });
+
+  assert.equal(llmCalls, 0);
+  assert.equal(result.route, CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT);
+  assert.equal(result.source, 'rule');
+});
+
 test('createChatIntentRouter fast-paths news lookup to agent without LLM', async () => {
   let llmCalls = 0;
   const router = createChatIntentRouter({
diff --git a/chat-task-intent-config.mjs b/chat-task-intent-config.mjs
index bfb76c6..0436673 100644
--- a/chat-task-intent-config.mjs
+++ b/chat-task-intent-config.mjs
@@ -50,6 +50,19 @@ export function isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser(userId, policy) {
   return policy.canaryUserIds.has(String(userId ?? '').trim());
 }
 
+export function resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy(env = process.env) {
+  return {
+    enabled: envFlag(env?.MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED, false),
+    canaryUserIds: parseUserIdSet(env?.MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS),
+  };
+}
+
+export function isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser(userId, policy) {
+  if (!policy?.enabled) return false;
+  if (!policy.canaryUserIds?.size) return true;
+  return policy.canaryUserIds.has(String(userId ?? '').trim());
+}
+
 export function shouldDeferChatSessionRoutingToLlm({
   enabled = false,
   text = '',
diff --git a/chat-task-intent-config.test.mjs b/chat-task-intent-config.test.mjs
index 2724bd7..1316b31 100644
--- a/chat-task-intent-config.test.mjs
+++ b/chat-task-intent-config.test.mjs
@@ -3,8 +3,10 @@ import test from 'node:test';
 import {
   isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser,
   isDirectEscalationContextEnabledForUser,
+  isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser,
   resolveChatSessionDeferPolicy,
   resolveDirectEscalationContextPolicy,
+  resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy,
   shouldDeferChatSessionRoutingToLlm,
 } from './chat-task-intent-config.mjs';
 
@@ -54,3 +56,18 @@ test('resolveChatSessionDeferPolicy parses min text length', () => {
   assert.equal(isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser('john', policy), true);
   assert.equal(isChatSessionDeferEnabledForUser('other', policy), false);
 });
+
+test('resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy defaults to disabled', () => {
+  const policy = resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy({});
+  assert.equal(policy.enabled, false);
+  assert.equal(isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser('john', policy), false);
+});
+
+test('isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser respects canary list', () => {
+  const policy = resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy({
+    MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED: '1',
+    MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS: 'john',
+  });
+  assert.equal(isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser('john', policy), true);
+  assert.equal(isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser('other', policy), false);
+});
diff --git a/docs/architecture/chat-task-intent-layer-review-20260828.md b/docs/architecture/chat-task-intent-layer-review-20260828.md
index 81e3ae0..379e66b 100644
--- a/docs/architecture/chat-task-intent-layer-review-20260828.md
+++ b/docs/architecture/chat-task-intent-layer-review-20260828.md
@@ -391,6 +391,8 @@ direct chat 当前 `stream:false` + 前端 600ms 轮询，长回答等待感明
 
 **没有阶段 A，后续所有改动都无法证伪。**
 
+落地（2026-09-19）：`intent_routed` 现带稳定 `observation` 字段；用 `npm run check:chat-intent-baseline` 汇总最近窗口。不改路由结果。阶段 B/C 仍默认关。
+
 ### 11.3 阶段 B · 只补上下文
 
 对应 §5 的 P1，但**只做 P1.1**，暂不做 P1.2 / P1.3。
@@ -467,6 +469,8 @@ chat-intent-router.mjs:1737
 
 任一步指标超阈值即回退上一步。新增 flag：`MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_ENABLED`（默认 0）。
 
+C-2 本地验证（2026-09-19）：「想先聊聊车载冰箱怎么选」被 LLM 按「对比选型」升到 Agent。收窄闸门：`isDiscussionFirstText`（先聊聊/先讨论/先了解/先不要执行）走 `direct_chat`，不 defer；同句若已有生成页面/你去执行则仍升 Agent。LLM prompt 同步加「先聊除外」。
+
 #### 11.4.5 成本与延迟
 
 这是本阶段**唯一真实代价**：通过闸门的聊天轮次会多一次小模型 router 调用（生产为 `deepseek-chat`），在 direct chat 应答前引入约数百毫秒。
@@ -489,7 +493,9 @@ direct-chat-service.mjs:141
 
 仅当阶段 A/C 数据显示「短句纠偏失败」占比超过阈值时才做。
 
-范围收窄为：session 为 `h5direct_` **且** 上一轮 `direct_chat_completed` **且** 命中 `AGENT_TASK_FOLLOWUP_PATTERNS` → 强制 agent，并复用阶段 B 的上下文注入。
+落地（2026-09-19）：独立 flag `MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED`（默认 0）+ canary。不放宽 `resolveActiveTaskContext` 对 `h5direct_` 的 null 返回；只在上一轮 `direct_chat_completed` 且命中 followup 模式时强制 agent。
+
+范围收窄为：上一轮 `direct_chat_completed` **且** 命中 `AGENT_TASK_FOLLOWUP_PATTERNS` → 强制 agent。H5 新会话实际是 `20260919_7` 这类日期 ID，direct chat 会复用它，因此不能只认 `h5direct_` 前缀。`h5direct_` 升级仍走阶段 B 注入并换 Goose session；日期会话已在同 ID 上 mirror，升级时保持原 session。
 
 不做：全面放宽 `resolveActiveTaskContext` 对 `h5direct_` 的 null 返回；不做 chat→chat 默认延续。
 
@@ -513,7 +519,7 @@ direct-chat-service.mjs:141
 | A 观测 | P0 | 无 | 拿到 0.72 兜底占比与升级频率基线 |
 | B 上下文 | P1.1 | 低 | 升级后 Goose 输入含 prior context；memory recall 仍 100% direct；`verify:h5-session-patches` 通过 |
 | C 语义识别 | P2（修订） | 中，可灰度 | shadow `wouldChangeRoute` 在预期区间；canary 期 agent 触发率增幅低于阈值；`RESOLVED_INJECTED` 比例不下降 |
-| D 纠偏 | P3（收窄） | 中 | 「不对你去执行」在 `h5direct_` 可进 agent；误触发率低于阈值 |
+| D 纠偏 | P3（收窄） | 中 | 「不对你去执行」在上一轮 `direct_chat_completed` 后可进 agent（含日期 session / `h5direct_`）；误触发率低于阈值 |
 
 回归范围（除 `verify:h5-session-patches` 外）：`chat-intent-router.test.mjs`、`direct-chat-service.test.mjs`、`agent-run-gateway.test.mjs`，以及 `scripts/verify-world-cup-flow-e2e.mjs`（该脚本显式断言不应出现 `direct_chat_completed`，对阶段 C 敏感）。
 
@@ -564,3 +570,5 @@ direct-chat-service.mjs:141
 | 2026-08-28 | 增补 §11 最低影响实施方案：将 P2 的实现方式从 `execute_task` 修订为「让已有 LLM router 在聊天会话可达」，暂缓 tool calling；P1 收窄为仅 P1.1；P3 收窄为仅 `h5direct_` 纠偏 |
 | 2026-08-28 | 增补 §12 Memory V2 兼容性：三条注入路径现状、各阶段影响、四条强制要求 |
 | 2026-08-28 | 交叉引用 [Intent Layer V1 对照评估](./intent-layer-v1-assessment-20260828.md)；开发顺序仍以本文 §11 为准 |
+| 2026-09-19 | C-2 过激收窄：讨论优先（先聊聊/先讨论）不再 defer 给 LLM |
+| 2026-09-19 | 阶段 D 不再只认 `h5direct_`：H5 日期 session 上一轮 direct 完成后短句纠偏同样生效 |
diff --git a/memory-v2-admin-config.mjs b/memory-v2-admin-config.mjs
index d20392f..bd588b8 100644
--- a/memory-v2-admin-config.mjs
+++ b/memory-v2-admin-config.mjs
@@ -28,6 +28,8 @@ const FIELD_SPECS = [
   { env: 'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_CHAT_SESSION_DEFER_MIN_TEXT_LENGTH', group: 'chatIntentRouter', field: 'chatSessionDeferMinTextLength', type: 'number' },
   { env: 'MEMIND_DIRECT_ESCALATION_CONTEXT_ENABLED', group: 'chatIntentRouter', field: 'directEscalationContextEnabled', type: 'boolean' },
   { env: 'MEMIND_DIRECT_ESCALATION_CONTEXT_CANARY_USER_IDS', group: 'chatIntentRouter', field: 'directEscalationContextCanaryUserIds', type: 'string' },
+  { env: 'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_ENABLED', group: 'chatIntentRouter', field: 'directFollowupEscalateEnabled', type: 'boolean' },
+  { env: 'MEMIND_CHAT_ROUTER_DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE_CANARY_USER_IDS', group: 'chatIntentRouter', field: 'directFollowupEscalateCanaryUserIds', type: 'string' },
 
   { env: 'MEMORY_CANDIDATE_ENABLED', group: 'candidateMemory', field: 'enabled', type: 'boolean' },
   { env: 'MEMORY_CANDIDATE_MODE', group: 'candidateMemory', field: 'mode', type: 'string' },
diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index 0849a99..47f1937 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -139,6 +139,8 @@
     "verify:tang-itl-readiness-103": "node scripts/verify-tang-itl-readiness-103.mjs",
     "simulate:tang-wechat-itl": "node scripts/simulate-tang-wechat-itl-flow.mjs",
     "check:itl-rollout-config": "node scripts/check-itl-rollout-config.mjs",
+    "check:chat-intent-baseline": "node scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs",
+    "verify:chat-intent-followup": "node scripts/verify-chat-intent-followup.mjs",
     "check:schedule-reminder-health-103": "node scripts/check-schedule-reminder-health-103.mjs",
     "test:mindspace-e2e": "node scripts/mindspace-e2e.mjs",
     "test:mindspace-pages-e2e": "node scripts/mindspace-pages-e2e.mjs",
diff --git a/scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs b/scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..03553bd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * Stage A baseline for chat-task intent routing.
+ * Reads existing agent-run events; does not change routing.
+ *
+ * Usage:
+ *   node scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs
+ *   node scripts/report-chat-intent-baseline.mjs --hours 48
+ */
+import { loadH5Environment } from './load-env.mjs';
+import { createDbPool } from '../db.mjs';
+import {
+  aggregateChatIntentObservations,
+  observationFromIntentRoutedData,
+} from '../chat-intent-observation.mjs';
+
+loadH5Environment(import.meta.dirname);
+
+function parseHours(argv) {
+  const index = argv.indexOf('--hours');
+  if (index < 0) return 24;
+  const parsed = Number(argv[index + 1]);
+  return Number.isFinite(parsed) && parsed > 0 ? parsed : 24;
+}
+
+function parseJson(value) {
+  if (!value) return {};
+  if (typeof value === 'object') return value;
+  try {
+    return JSON.parse(String(value));
+  } catch {
+    return {};
+  }
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const hours = parseHours(process.argv.slice(2));
+  const sinceMs = Date.now() - hours * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+  const pool = await createDbPool();
+  try {
+    const [rows] = await pool.query(
+      `SELECT event_type, data_json
+         FROM h5_agent_run_events
+        WHERE created_at >= ?
+          AND event_type IN (
+            'intent_routed',
+            'direct_session_escalated_to_deep_reasoning',
+            'direct_escalation_context_injected'
+          )
+        ORDER BY created_at ASC`,
+      [sinceMs],
+    );
+    const routed = [];
+    let escalatedCount = 0;
+    let contextInjectedCount = 0;
+    for (const row of rows ?? []) {
+      if (row.event_type === 'direct_session_escalated_to_deep_reasoning') {
+        escalatedCount += 1;
+        continue;
+      }
+      if (row.event_type === 'direct_escalation_context_injected') {
+        contextInjectedCount += 1;
+        continue;
+      }
+      routed.push(observationFromIntentRoutedData(parseJson(row.data_json)));
+    }
+    const summary = aggregateChatIntentObservations({
+      routed,
+      escalatedCount,
+      contextInjectedCount,
+    });
+    console.log(`==> chat intent baseline last ${hours}h`);
+    console.log(JSON.stringify(summary, null, 2));
+    if (summary.total === 0) {
+      console.log('NOTE  窗口内没有 intent_routed。阶段 A 需要先有聊天流量。');
+    } else {
+      console.log(
+        `NOTE  0.72 兜底 ${summary.ruleFallbackCount}/${summary.total}`
+        + ` (${summary.ruleFallbackRatio});`
+        + ` 升级 ${summary.escalatedCount};`
+        + ` 记忆召回仍走 direct ${summary.memoryRecallDirectRatio};`
+        + ` shadow wouldChangeRoute ${summary.wouldChangeRoute}/${summary.shadowObserved}`,
+      );
+    }
+  } finally {
+    await pool.end();
+  }
+}
+
+main().catch((err) => {
+  console.error(err instanceof Error ? err.message : err);
+  process.exitCode = 1;
+});
diff --git a/scripts/run-memind-tests.mjs b/scripts/run-memind-tests.mjs
index 23ab1a6..e92f2f6 100644
--- a/scripts/run-memind-tests.mjs
+++ b/scripts/run-memind-tests.mjs
@@ -120,6 +120,8 @@ const SCOPE_RULES = [
       /session-snapshot/i,
       /direct-chat-service/i,
       /chat-intent-router/i,
+      /chat-intent-observation/i,
+      /chat-task-intent/i,
       /scripts\/check-memory-v2/i,
       /scripts\/smoke-memory-v2/i,
     ],
@@ -131,6 +133,8 @@ const SCOPE_RULES = [
       'episodic-memory.test.mjs',
       'direct-chat-service.test.mjs',
       'chat-intent-router.test.mjs',
+      'chat-intent-observation.test.mjs',
+      'chat-task-intent-config.test.mjs',
     ],
   },
   {
diff --git a/scripts/verify-chat-intent-followup.mjs b/scripts/verify-chat-intent-followup.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..af0db56
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/verify-chat-intent-followup.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * Local Stage D check: casual chat then a short "go do it" follow-up.
+ * Does not require Goose to finish; waits for intent_routed only.
+ *
+ *   H5_PORT=8086 node scripts/verify-chat-intent-followup.mjs
+ */
+import crypto from 'node:crypto';
+import { loadH5Environment } from './load-env.mjs';
+import { createDbPool } from '../db.mjs';
+import { createUserAuth, USER_COOKIE } from '../user-auth.mjs';
+import { CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE } from '../chat-intent-router.mjs';
+import { isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser, resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy } from '../chat-task-intent-config.mjs';
+
+loadH5Environment(import.meta.dirname);
+
+const PORTAL = `http://127.0.0.1:${process.env.H5_PORT ?? 8081}`;
+const USERNAME = process.env.MEMIND_E2E_USERNAME ?? 'john';
+const PASSWORD = process.env.JOHN_PASSWORD ?? process.env.H5_ACCESS_PASSWORD ?? '888888';
+const DIRECT_MESSAGE = '我想了解车载冰箱，MPV 用，宽度不超过 60cm，先聊聊选购要点';
+const FOLLOWUP_MESSAGE = '不对，你去执行';
+const EVENT_WAIT_MS = 90_000;
+
+const issues = [];
+
+function pass(label, detail = '') {
+  console.log(`✔ ${label}${detail ? `: ${detail}` : ''}`);
+}
+
+function fail(label, detail = '') {
+  issues.push({ label, detail });
+  console.error(`✘ ${label}${detail ? `: ${detail}` : ''}`);
+}
+
+function parseEventData(raw) {
+  if (!raw) return null;
+  if (typeof raw === 'object') return raw;
+  try {
+    return JSON.parse(String(raw));
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+async function loginViaApi() {
+  const response = await fetch(`${PORTAL}/auth/login`, {
+    method: 'POST',
+    headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+    body: JSON.stringify({ username: USERNAME, password: PASSWORD }),
+  });
+  const body = await response.json().catch(() => ({}));
+  if (response.ok && body?.authenticated) {
+    const setCookie = response.headers.getSetCookie?.() ?? [];
+    const cookieLine = setCookie.find((line) => line.startsWith(`${USER_COOKIE}=`))
+      ?? response.headers.get('set-cookie');
+    const match = String(cookieLine ?? '').match(new RegExp(`${USER_COOKIE}=([^;]+)`));
+    if (match?.[1]) {
+      return { token: decodeURIComponent(match[1]), userId: body.user?.id ?? null };
+    }
+  }
+  const pool = await createDbPool();
+  const auth = createUserAuth(pool);
+  const result = await auth.login({ username: USERNAME, password: PASSWORD, ip: '127.0.0.1' });
+  await pool.end();
+  if (!result.ok || !result.token) {
+    throw new Error(`登录失败: ${result.message ?? 'unknown'}`);
+  }
+  return { token: result.token, userId: result.user?.id ?? null };
+}
+
+async function createRun(token, { message, sessionId = null }) {
+  const response = await fetch(`${PORTAL}/api/agent/runs`, {
+    method: 'POST',
+    headers: {
+      'Content-Type': 'application/json',
+      Cookie: `${USER_COOKIE}=${token}`,
+    },
+    body: JSON.stringify({
+      request_id: crypto.randomUUID(),
+      session_id: sessionId,
+      user_message: {
+        id: crypto.randomUUID(),
+        role: 'user',
+        content: [{ type: 'text', text: message }],
+        metadata: { displayText: message, userVisible: true },
+      },
+    }),
+  });
+  const payload = await response.json().catch(() => ({}));
+  if (!response.ok) {
+    throw new Error(`POST /api/agent/runs ${response.status}: ${JSON.stringify(payload)}`);
+  }
+  const run = payload.run ?? payload;
+  return { runId: run.id, sessionId: run.sessionId ?? run.agent_session_id ?? sessionId ?? null };
+}
+
+async function getRun(token, runId) {
+  const response = await fetch(`${PORTAL}/api/agent/runs/${runId}`, {
+    headers: { Cookie: `${USER_COOKIE}=${token}` },
+  });
+  const payload = await response.json().catch(() => ({}));
+  return payload.run ?? payload;
+}
+
+async function readRunEvents(runId) {
+  const pool = await createDbPool();
+  const [rows] = await pool.query(
+    `SELECT event_type, data_json FROM h5_agent_run_events WHERE run_id = ? ORDER BY created_at ASC`,
+    [runId],
+  );
+  await pool.end();
+  return rows;
+}
+
+async function waitForRunEvents(token, runId, { requireCompleted = false } = {}) {
+  const started = Date.now();
+  while (Date.now() - started < EVENT_WAIT_MS) {
+    const run = await getRun(token, runId);
+    const events = await readRunEvents(runId);
+    const routed = events.find((row) => row.event_type === 'intent_routed');
+    const completed = events.find((row) => row.event_type === 'direct_chat_completed');
+    const sessionId = parseEventData(completed?.data_json)?.sessionId
+      ?? run?.sessionId
+      ?? run?.agent_session_id
+      ?? null;
+    if (routed && sessionId && (!requireCompleted || completed || ['succeeded', 'failed'].includes(run?.status))) {
+      return {
+        run,
+        events,
+        routed: parseEventData(routed.data_json),
+        sessionId,
+      };
+    }
+    await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 1000));
+  }
+  throw new Error(`run ${runId} 未在 ${EVENT_WAIT_MS}ms 内拿到路由/session`);
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  const health = await fetch(`${PORTAL}/auth/status`).catch(() => null);
+  if (!health?.ok) throw new Error(`Portal 不可用: ${PORTAL}/auth/status`);
+  pass('Portal', PORTAL);
+
+  const { token, userId } = await loginViaApi();
+  pass('登录', `${USERNAME} (${userId ?? 'unknown'})`);
+
+  const policy = resolveDirectFollowupEscalatePolicy(process.env);
+  if (!isDirectFollowupEscalateEnabledForUser(userId, policy)) {
+    fail('阶段 D flag', `用户 ${userId} 未命中 DIRECT_FOLLOWUP_ESCALATE canary`);
+  } else {
+    pass('阶段 D flag', 'enabled for user');
+  }
+
+  const direct = await createRun(token, { message: DIRECT_MESSAGE });
+  pass('direct 提交', direct.runId);
+  const directResult = await waitForRunEvents(token, direct.runId, { requireCompleted: true });
+  if (directResult.routed?.route !== CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.DIRECT_CHAT) {
+    fail('direct 路由', String(directResult.routed?.route ?? 'missing'));
+  } else {
+    pass('direct 路由', directResult.routed.reason ?? 'direct_chat');
+  }
+  const sessionId = directResult.sessionId;
+  if (!sessionId) fail('direct session', 'missing');
+  else pass('direct session', sessionId);
+
+  const followup = await createRun(token, { message: FOLLOWUP_MESSAGE, sessionId });
+  pass('followup 提交', followup.runId);
+  const followupResult = await waitForRunEvents(token, followup.runId);
+  const routed = followupResult.routed;
+  if (routed?.route !== CHAT_INTENT_ROUTE.AGENT) {
+    fail('阶段 D 路由', `期望 agent，实际 ${routed?.route ?? 'missing'} / ${routed?.reason ?? ''}`);
+  } else if (!String(routed.reason ?? '').includes('短句纠偏')) {
+    fail('阶段 D 原因', routed.reason ?? 'missing');
+  } else {
+    pass('阶段 D 路由', routed.reason);
+  }
+  const escalated = followupResult.events.some((row) =>
+    row.event_type === 'direct_session_escalated_to_deep_reasoning');
+  const isH5Direct = String(sessionId ?? '').startsWith('h5direct_');
+  if (escalated) pass('升级事件', 'direct_session_escalated_to_deep_reasoning');
+  else if (!isH5Direct) pass('升级事件', '日期 session 同会话升级，无需换 Goose session');
+  else fail('升级事件', '未看到 direct session 升级');
+
+  console.log('\n=== 汇总 ===');
+  if (issues.length) {
+    for (const item of issues) console.log(`  - ${item.label}: ${item.detail}`);
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+  console.log('chat intent followup 本地验收通过');
+}
+
+main().catch((err) => {
+  console.error(err instanceof Error ? err.message : err);
+  process.exit(1);
+});