feat: add orchestrator canary readiness gate

ops/src/api/admin.ts

@@ -284,6 +284,7 @@ export type OrchestratorShadowRun = {
   configVersion: number | null;
   phase: string | null;
   taskType: string | null;
+  synthetic: boolean;
   executorAdapter: string | null;
   latencyMs: number | null;
   error: { code: string; message: string } | null;
@@ -298,6 +299,55 @@ export type OrchestratorShadowRunList = {
   runs: OrchestratorShadowRun[];
 };
 
+export type OrchestratorCanaryReadinessCheck = {
+  id: string;
+  passed: boolean;
+  actual: string | number | boolean | null;
+  target: string | number | boolean | null;
+};
+
+export type OrchestratorCanaryReadiness = {
+  generatedAt: number;
+  ready: boolean;
+  recommendation: 'keep_shadow' | 'manual_canary_review';
+  window: { hours: number; from: number };
+  thresholds: {
+    hours: number;
+    minObservations: number;
+    minSuccessRate: number;
+    maxP95LatencyMs: number;
+    minLatencyCoverageRate: number;
+    minNativeSettledRate: number;
+    minDistinctSessions: number;
+    maxHoursSinceLastObservation: number;
+  };
+  samples: {
+    totalObservations: number;
+    eligibleObservations: number;
+    excludedSynthetic: number;
+    successes: number;
+    failures: number;
+    successRate: number | null;
+    latencyCoverageRate: number | null;
+    latencyP95Ms: number | null;
+    nativeSettledRate: number | null;
+    distinctSessions: number;
+    lastObservedAt: number | null;
+    hoursSinceLastObservation: number | null;
+    sampled: boolean;
+  };
+  service: {
+    status: string | null;
+    latencyMs: number | null;
+    checkpointKind: string | null;
+    checkpointDurable: boolean | null;
+    execution: string | null;
+  };
+  checks: OrchestratorCanaryReadinessCheck[];
+  blockers: string[];
+  failureCodes: Array<{ code: string; count: number }>;
+};
+
 export type OrchestratorShadowRunDetail = {
   native: {
     runId: string;
@@ -386,6 +436,12 @@ export async function fetchOrchestratorShadowRuns(params: {
   );
 }
 
+export async function fetchOrchestratorCanaryReadiness() {
+  return adminFetch<OrchestratorCanaryReadiness>(
+    '/admin-api/orchestrator/canary-readiness',
+  );
+}
+
 export async function fetchOrchestratorShadowRun(runId: string) {
   return adminFetch<OrchestratorShadowRunDetail>(
     `/admin-api/orchestrator/shadow-runs/${encodeURIComponent(runId)}`,