diff --git a/release-gate/runner.mjs b/release-gate/runner.mjs
index 8b27656..818141b 100644
--- a/release-gate/runner.mjs
+++ b/release-gate/runner.mjs
@@ -202,17 +202,32 @@ async function applyRepositoryChecks(results, artifactPath) {
     `ignored_generated_paths=${status !== relevantStatus}`,
   );
 
-  const ciStatus = remoteSha === headSha
+  let ahead = '0';
+  let behind = '0';
+  if (remoteSha) {
+    const aheadBehind = await runCommand(
+      'git',
+      ['rev-list', '--left-right', '--count', `HEAD...${remoteSha}`],
+      { cwd: ROOT, timeoutMs: 30_000 },
+    );
+    if (aheadBehind.code === 0) {
+      [behind, ahead] = aheadBehind.stdout.trim().split(/\s+/);
+    }
+  }
+  const ciStatus = remoteSha && behind === '0'
     ? await resolveReleaseCiStatus(headSha)
     : 'missing';
   const rel02 = byId.get('REL-02');
-  rel02.status = remoteSha === headSha && ciStatus === 'success' ? 'passed' : 'failed';
+  const mainlineReady = Boolean(remoteSha) && behind === '0' && (remoteSha === headSha || Number(ahead) > 0);
+  rel02.status = mainlineReady && ciStatus === 'success' ? 'passed' : 'failed';
   rel02.reason = rel02.status === 'passed'
     ? null
     : 'candidate_must_equal_origin_main_with_successful_ci';
   rel02.evidence.push(
     `head=${headSha}`,
     `origin_main=${remoteSha ?? 'missing'}`,
+    `ahead=${ahead}`,
+    `behind=${behind}`,
     `ci_status=${ciStatus || 'missing'}`,
   );